Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  21.8  20.8  17.0  16.1  15.2  19.9  19.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  15.0  17.0  13.0  15.0  16.0  41.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 112.3  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0 147.0 160.0 169.0 123.0  83.0  47.0  15.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%       11.8%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       43.4%       60.4%       51.9%
 30kt / 24h       26.7%       52.1%       39.4%
 35kt / 24h       17.8%       52.1%       35.0%
 40kt / 24h       17.8%       52.1%       35.0%
 45kt / 36h       35.9%       62.7%       49.3%
 55kt / 36h       18.8%       41.3%       30.0%
 55kt / 48h       31.5%       45.1%       38.3%
 70kt / 48h       14.3%       35.1%       24.7%
 65kt / 72h       16.5%       37.9%       27.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 EP072026 260725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  21.8  20.8  17.0  16.1  15.2  19.9  19.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%