Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.3  19.7  15.4  12.0  13.9  18.2  20.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  16.0  12.0  15.0  14.0  22.0  30.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 110.1  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 136.0 133.0 118.0  73.0  81.0  17.0  14.0  F VF VF  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  74.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%        8.7%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       34.4%       56.0%       45.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.4%       45.0%       31.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.0%       45.0%       28.5%
 40kt / 24h       12.0%       45.0%       28.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       58.6%       43.4%
 55kt / 36h       12.4%       37.3%       24.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.4%       44.9%       33.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%       31.6%       20.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%       32.9%       22.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP072026 260725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.3  19.7  15.4  12.0  13.9  18.2  20.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  74.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%