Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260725 12UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 103.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.7 23.0 20.8 21.4 16.9 18.0 18.6 24.5 N N N N F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 20.0 17.0 17.0 18.0 37.0 24.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 107.3 96.5 88.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 132.0 131.0 108.0 108.0 68.0 57.0 38.0 45.0 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 76.0 72.0 73.0 70.0 N N N N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -3.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.0% 7.1% 7.1% 25kt / 24h 28.2% 48.4% 38.3% 30kt / 24h 14.0% 37.5% 25.7% 35kt / 24h 8.4% 37.5% 22.9% 40kt / 24h 8.0% 35.8% 21.9% 45kt / 36h 20.7% 42.0% 31.3% 55kt / 36h 6.8% 21.1% 13.9% 55kt / 48h 12.7% 29.6% 21.2% 70kt / 48h 3.8% 14.4% 9.1% 65kt / 72h 5.8% 15.8% 10.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.70 EP072026 260725 12UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 103.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.7 23.0 20.8 21.4 16.9 18.0 18.6 24.5 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 76.0 72.0 73.0 70.0 N N N N U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -3.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%