Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  21.1  17.8  14.4  20.8  18.0  20.9  23.3  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  24.0  32.0  21.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  95.7  83.5  67.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0 125.0  90.0  59.0  30.0  54.0  39.0  44.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.0%       14.8%       14.4%
 25kt / 24h       45.6%       63.9%       54.8%
 30kt / 24h       28.3%       59.6%       43.9%
 35kt / 24h       22.2%       59.6%       40.9%
 40kt / 24h       15.9%       59.6%       37.8%
 45kt / 36h       26.8%       52.1%       39.5%
 55kt / 36h       12.0%       31.8%       21.9%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%       30.9%       22.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%       16.5%       10.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%       12.3%        7.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 EP072026 260725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  21.1  17.8  14.4  20.8  18.0  20.9  23.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%