Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.2  18.2  19.8  19.8  21.4  25.4  24.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  34.0  28.0  21.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  94.6  83.6  73.5  59.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 107.0  88.0  52.0  24.0  50.0  40.0  54.0 VF  F  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   8.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       54.7%       38.6%       46.6%
 25kt / 24h       68.4%       82.5%       75.5%
 30kt / 24h       58.1%       82.5%       70.3%
 35kt / 24h       55.5%       82.5%       69.0%
 40kt / 24h       49.3%       82.5%       65.9%
 45kt / 36h       42.2%       62.7%       52.5%
 55kt / 36h       23.7%       44.7%       34.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       36.0%       24.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%       18.9%       11.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        9.7%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 EP072026 260726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.2  18.2  19.8  19.8  21.4  25.4  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   8.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%