Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.0  19.1  19.5  20.1  21.3  21.4  22.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  19.0  26.0  30.0  21.0  22.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  89.3  87.0  73.6  63.5  59.8  44.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  81.0  54.0  33.0  28.0  49.0  35.0  38.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       76.5%       59.1%       67.8%
 25kt / 24h       84.1%       90.2%       87.1%
 30kt / 24h       84.1%       90.2%       87.1%
 35kt / 24h       84.1%       90.2%       87.1%
 40kt / 24h       84.1%       90.2%       87.1%
 45kt / 36h       47.5%       62.7%       55.1%
 55kt / 36h       28.6%       46.2%       37.4%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%       31.4%       22.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP072026 260726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.0  19.1  19.5  20.1  21.3  21.4  22.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%