Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.3  20.4  21.6  21.8  25.7  23.4  21.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  30.0  41.0  21.0  20.0  25.0  17.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  74.3  72.0  67.3  56.5  44.8  29.6  26.5  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  83.0  65.0  17.0  46.0  32.0  45.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  71.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   6.0   1.0   3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.2%       35.6%       50.4%
 25kt / 24h       53.9%       58.1%       56.0%
 30kt / 24h       48.4%       58.1%       53.2%
 35kt / 24h       48.1%       58.1%       53.1%
 40kt / 24h       48.1%       58.1%       53.1%
 45kt / 36h       47.6%       33.7%       40.6%
 55kt / 36h       17.2%       18.7%       17.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 EP072026 260726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.3  20.4  21.6  21.8  25.7  23.4  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  71.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   6.0   1.0   3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%