Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  21.1  21.5  21.1  25.9  25.1  24.3  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  23.0  40.0  32.0  19.0  22.0  23.0  12.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  47.0  42.3  40.1  31.5  18.0   4.6  -1.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  77.0  26.0  18.0   5.0  60.0  27.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.8%       14.4%       30.1%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       18.3%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       14.6%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h       17.1%       14.6%       15.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP072026 260726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  21.1  21.5  21.1  25.9  25.1  24.3  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%