Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.9  19.9  22.8  24.0  23.4  23.1  16.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  40.0  27.0  21.0  20.0  26.0  19.0   2.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.0  27.3  18.6  16.5   6.6 -10.4 -13.5 -27.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  59.0  13.0  46.0  29.0  47.0   5.0  20.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   1.0   6.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.4%       10.1%       23.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP072026 260727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.9  19.9  22.8  24.0  23.4  23.1  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   1.0   6.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%