Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.8  20.4  25.2  25.8  27.3  18.9  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  28.0  22.0  20.0  24.0  22.0   7.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         17.3   8.6   6.5  -1.5  -7.0 -20.4 -35.8 -46.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  44.0  42.0  17.0  46.0   8.0   0.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   9.0   0.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 EP072026 260727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.8  20.4  25.2  25.8  27.3  18.9  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   9.0   0.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%