Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  22.6  24.4  23.6  23.6  22.1  17.0  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  20.0  22.0  25.0  16.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.6  11.5   1.6   1.6 -15.4 -18.5 -32.1 -43.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  30.0  22.0  36.0  55.0  -4.0  36.0 -21.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 EP072026 260727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  22.6  24.4  23.6  23.6  22.1  17.0  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%