Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  25.2  24.4  25.6  20.5  16.1  19.1  14.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  26.0  24.0  21.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.6   4.3   1.1  -3.5 -14.6 -19.5 -30.3 -38.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  27.0  25.0 -24.0  16.0  18.0  16.0  -9.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   2.0   3.0  -6.0  -5.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.56

 EP072026 260728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.