Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    116.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  28.5  26.8  21.7  19.8  19.6  19.8  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  14.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.1  11.5   8.6   0.4  -4.5 -15.3 -23.4 -22.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0 -14.0 -10.0  25.0   4.0  24.0  -3.0  36.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -8.0  -7.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.96

 EP072026 260728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    116.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.