Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.4  16.9  19.6  19.8  15.2  17.9  24.4  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.7   7.7   5.7   4.7  -2.6  -5.8  -5.8  -5.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   9.0  16.0   7.0   9.0   5.0  14.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0   5.0   2.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.26

 EP072026 260730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.