Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  19.7  17.1  15.5  13.9  19.5  25.9  30.4  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.7  13.3  12.4  13.3   9.2   9.2  10.0  12.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  25.0  -5.0  -3.0  17.0   5.0  22.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0  14.0  22.0  15.0  F  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.34

 EP072026 260730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.