Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260731 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.90 127.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.5 13.8 18.9 21.0 26.4 32.9 30.0 21.4 F F N N N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 29.2 29.2 28.4 29.2 30.0 32.4 34.1 36.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 10.0 -12.0 0.0 4.0 13.0 4.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 48.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 15.0 11.0 16.0 15.0 N N N U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.56 EP072026 260731 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.90 127.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.