Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260801 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 130.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 20.1 21.0 25.0 30.0 28.2 21.2 25.8 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.8 34.2 36.6 35.8 39.1 40.9 42.8 40.9 U VU U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 -8.0 -11.0 -14.0 -1.0 13.0 17.0 -7.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 5.0 12.0 14.0 7.0 15.0 12.0 10.0 N N U U N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.66 EP072026 260801 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 130.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.