Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260801 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.2 21.1 22.8 27.6 32.8 28.3 20.2 35.1 N N N N U N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.4 35.8 36.6 36.6 38.3 40.9 40.9 41.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 -14.0 -7.0 -9.0 3.0 39.0 21.0 -11.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 45.0 45.0 43.0 VU VU U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 12.0 17.0 7.0 11.0 N U U U U U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.78 EP072026 260801 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.