Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260801 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 23.1 26.8 30.0 30.6 22.2 24.3 40.4 N N N N U N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.8 41.6 44.1 43.3 45.9 47.8 47.8 46.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 0.0 -17.0 -5.0 21.0 27.0 3.0 -6.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 43.0 VU U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 12.0 13.0 6.0 13.0 14.0 7.0 11.0 U U U N U U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.90 EP072026 260801 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.