Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260802 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 137.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 32.5 32.3 28.0 27.3 43.4 53.1 61.6 U U U N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.1 45.0 45.9 45.9 47.8 47.8 49.7 48.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 16.0 40.0 18.0 7.0 1.0 16.0 -1.0 U U N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 47.0 46.0 41.0 40.0 38.0 36.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 15.0 11.0 9.0 6.0 10.0 2.0 6.0 U U U U N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.14 EP072026 260802 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 137.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.