Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260802 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 138.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.6 33.6 27.9 25.9 38.0 47.2 56.6 54.2 U U N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.3 50.9 52.8 50.9 54.7 52.8 51.8 53.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 40.0 26.0 32.0 -1.0 -22.0 29.0 45.0 U N U N U VU N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 40.0 40.0 37.0 34.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 11.0 6.0 9.0 8.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 U U N U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.22 EP072026 260802 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 138.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.