Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082026 260813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.1  44.5  41.5  35.3  36.6  33.7  36.8  38.2 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.7  76.7  76.7  76.7  76.7  76.7  76.7  69.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  80.0  26.0  52.0  45.0   0.0   5.0  18.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.20

 EP082026 260813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.