Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260813 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.4 36.4 31.2 33.0 30.9 28.0 24.8 30.5 VU U U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 11.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.7 71.7 80.0 80.0 89.3 98.0 96.2 94.4 U U N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 10.0 15.0 2.0 43.0 -11.0 31.0 -18.0 N U U U N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 67.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 1.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.44 EP082026 260813 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.