Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260813 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 132.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 26.7 29.1 28.0 26.5 25.1 28.3 28.3 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 8.0 15.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 84.3 82.7 91.2 89.4 89.4 U U U N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 10.0 3.0 8.0 23.0 20.0 13.0 13.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 59.0 55.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -8.0 -5.0 -1.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 F F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.92 EP082026 260813 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 132.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.