Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260814 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.0 25.1 24.2 24.3 25.9 22.7 24.4 24.4 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 89.3 89.3 89.3 96.2 96.2 101.6 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 31.0 21.0 18.0 -11.0 -27.0 0.0 26.0 26.0 N U U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 57.0 54.0 57.0 57.0 61.0 61.0 N N U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -5.0 -1.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.28 EP082026 260814 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.