Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260814 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.3 22.7 22.5 25.0 22.0 20.1 22.1 22.1 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 14.0 13.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 98.0 98.0 98.0 96.2 101.6 91.0 91.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 12.0 6.0 -17.0 24.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 57.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 58.0 59.0 59.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.70 EP082026 260814 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.