Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260814 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 18.4 22.4 21.5 20.1 20.9 16.8 16.8 N F N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 7.0 7.0 10.0 19.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.0 98.0 107.4 105.5 103.5 101.6 99.8 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 12.0 0.0 -8.0 31.0 36.0 -15.0 -15.0 U U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 55.0 57.0 55.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.8% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 2.7% 0.6% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.08 EP082026 260814 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.