Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260814 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 42.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 23.1 21.9 19.2 20.1 23.1 17.4 17.4 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 6.0 7.0 10.0 16.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.0 103.0 101.2 101.2 99.4 96.0 96.0 96.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 18.0 0.0 39.0 18.0 -19.0 11.0 11.0 U U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 2.6% 0.6% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 EP082026 260814 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.