Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260815 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 132.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 25.0 23.9 21.6 26.6 23.5 29.2 29.2 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 4.0 5.0 10.0 8.0 4.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.0 94.3 103.0 103.0 101.2 89.6 89.6 89.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 8.0 28.0 40.0 28.0 -5.0 -33.0 -33.0 U U U N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 51.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 4.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 EP082026 260815 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 132.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.