Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082026 260815 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 133.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 26.0 24.2 28.5 31.8 24.0 27.4 27.4 N N N N U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 5.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.3 92.7 92.7 91.1 89.6 89.6 89.6 89.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 27.0 62.0 39.0 -29.0 -26.0 -19.0 -19.0 U U N N VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 48.0 47.0 49.0 48.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 8.0 3.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 EP082026 260815 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 133.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.