Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082026 260815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  25.4  28.9  33.1  29.1  31.3  31.5  31.5  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  10.0   6.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  92.7  91.1  89.6  89.6  89.6  91.1  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  51.0  23.0  24.0  -9.0 -34.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  47.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.26

 EP082026 260815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.