Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  14.3  17.0  18.3  22.6  20.9  21.5  27.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  21.0  26.0  19.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 115.1 104.4 100.5  79.6  66.7  54.8  46.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  58.0  58.0  65.0  70.0   6.0  22.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  61.0  54.0  51.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -7.0  -7.0  -8.0  -1.0  -6.0   1.0  -4.0 VF  F  F  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        8.2%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.6%       35.5%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       23.3%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       23.3%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       19.8%       10.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       33.4%       20.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%       17.7%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       12.4%        4.7%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        7.0%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 EP092026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  14.3  17.0  18.3  22.6  20.9  21.5  27.9  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  61.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -7.0  -7.0  -8.0  -1.0  -6.0   1.0  -4.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%