Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    114.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  19.7  18.2  24.1  26.2  26.1  28.5  28.3  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  20.0  15.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6  91.6  89.8  79.3  61.7  57.9  45.7  45.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  46.0  40.0  62.0  30.0  23.0 -18.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        4.8%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%       16.1%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        9.1%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        8.6%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       12.2%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        4.8%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        0.8%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 EP092026 260824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    114.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.