Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    116.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  18.6  20.3  23.4  25.7  30.1  29.7  31.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  20.0  16.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.6  74.3  69.6  60.8  47.0  42.7  34.1  32.4  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  26.0  34.0  38.0  30.0  20.0  13.0   9.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0   5.0  -2.0   9.0   9.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.5%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        7.4%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.2%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.5%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.56

 EP092026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    116.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.