Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  26.6  30.1  28.4  26.9  27.0  28.6  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  17.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.8  64.6  64.6  51.7  39.8  35.7  28.3  27.4  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  56.0  71.0  47.0  28.0 -21.0  29.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -8.0  -8.0  -1.0  -1.0   9.0   4.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        3.2%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        4.6%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        2.4%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 EP092026 260824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.