Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092026 260824 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 117.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.9 28.4 27.1 29.4 32.0 27.6 38.4 43.6 N N N N U N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.6 46.7 45.4 34.8 30.7 30.7 22.4 23.3 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 87.0 83.0 64.0 13.0 -10.0 5.0 -3.0 13.0 F N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 56.0 52.0 50.0 45.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -9.0 -6.0 0.0 -7.0 10.0 -1.0 17.0 N F F N F U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.2% 1.8% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 2.2% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.52 EP092026 260824 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 117.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.