Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  31.8  27.6  28.6  28.9  28.6  41.1  39.7  N  U  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.7  46.7  45.4  35.9  31.7  24.1  22.4  20.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  41.0  17.0  29.0  -6.0  -3.0  18.0 -27.0  F  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  46.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   8.0   0.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        0.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.18

 EP092026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.