Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092026 260825 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 119.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 28.5 32.3 34.9 31.6 44.4 48.7 45.9 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.4 35.9 33.8 31.7 25.0 18.4 19.2 17.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 10.0 40.0 -1.0 5.0 0.0 16.0 -32.0 N U N U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 58.0 54.0 52.0 49.0 41.0 35.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 8.0 8.0 -3.0 9.0 2.0 10.0 -1.0 F U U N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.52 EP092026 260825 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 119.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.