Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092026 260826 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.70 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 31.3 33.4 41.6 51.0 46.7 43.2 43.2 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.9 45.0 44.1 39.2 39.2 37.6 39.2 39.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 -7.0 -18.0 8.0 22.0 -44.0 -11.0 -11.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 53.0 50.0 46.0 38.0 32.0 32.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 7.0 7.0 4.0 10.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.24 EP092026 260826 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.70 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.