Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  31.2  41.7  45.8  48.1  45.2  40.3  40.3  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  44.1  43.3  39.2  40.0  40.0  39.2  39.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0 -16.0  14.0  32.0 -22.0 -13.0 -14.0 -14.0 VU  U  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  42.0  36.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  10.0  -1.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.14

 EP092026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.