Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  40.8  47.7  50.8  49.4  47.4  50.2  50.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.1  39.2  39.2  39.2  36.9  36.2  38.4  38.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  19.0  39.0  14.0 -39.0   0.0 -19.0 -19.0  U  U  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  48.0  46.0  40.0  34.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   3.0  14.0   4.0   5.0   9.0   9.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.76

 EP092026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.