Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092026 260827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.9  44.0  49.1  48.0  49.5  46.7  46.7  46.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.2  49.2  49.2  46.2  47.6  46.2  46.2  46.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  56.0  23.0 -18.0 -28.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  U  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  38.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0  14.0  12.0   0.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.54

 EP092026 260827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.