Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102026 260824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  14.7  18.3  26.2  35.8  28.7  29.1  28.1  F  F  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0  20.0  24.0  17.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 127.3 120.7 120.7 108.5  89.6  68.2  50.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0 100.0 104.0  92.0  45.0  14.0 -10.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   8.0   0.0 -12.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       17.4%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        7.4%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        6.8%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.9%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       14.2%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        2.0%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP102026 260824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  14.7  18.3  26.2  35.8  28.7  29.1  28.1  N  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   8.0   0.0 -12.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%