Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102026 260825 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 25kt / 24h 6.9% 14.5% 10.7% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 6.4% 4.8% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 6.1% 3.7% 40kt / 24h 1.3% 4.8% 3.0% 45kt / 36h 3.4% 18.0% 10.7% 55kt / 36h 1.7% 6.8% 4.3% 55kt / 48h 10.2% 3.2% 6.7% 70kt / 48h 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 4.4% 2.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 EP102026 260825 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.