Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  16.6  20.9  21.9  24.3  20.5  22.5  17.7  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  24.0  19.0  16.0  26.0  16.0   5.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 117.0 112.3 101.5  88.0  76.1  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 121.0 137.0 121.0  93.0  80.0  75.0  16.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        6.6%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       42.9%       33.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       29.0%       20.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       29.0%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       29.0%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h       14.5%       32.5%       23.5%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%       14.1%        9.6%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       11.6%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        7.7%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        6.9%        4.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 EP112026 260828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  16.6  20.9  21.9  24.3  20.5  22.5  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%