Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  20.4  18.9  24.2  22.7  19.0  18.1  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  16.0  19.0  29.0   7.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 112.3 110.1  97.4  86.2  73.0  71.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   146.0 114.0  84.0  78.0  81.0  38.0  16.0  -1.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.4%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       14.4%       32.2%       23.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%       20.0%       12.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       20.0%       11.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       18.1%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       21.1%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        7.8%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%        7.9%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        4.8%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        5.1%        3.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP112026 260828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  20.4  18.9  24.2  22.7  19.0  18.1  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%