Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  18.4  19.5  22.9  18.3  21.0  13.9  16.1  N  F  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  19.0  27.0  14.0   5.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.0 105.1 105.1  96.5  83.0  69.6  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   163.0  98.0  90.0  91.0  93.0  38.0  -8.0 -16.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        7.1%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       36.2%       28.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%       24.4%       17.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       24.4%       14.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%       23.4%       14.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.6%       25.6%       18.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       10.7%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%        6.1%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        4.8%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        4.2%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 EP112026 260828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  18.4  19.5  22.9  18.3  21.0  13.9  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%