Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  17.1  21.8  22.4  19.9  17.1  16.7  19.2  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  18.0  27.0  16.0   7.0   2.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 100.1  97.9  87.4  76.2  74.4  61.5  57.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 111.0 112.0 109.0  62.0  22.0  12.0   4.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        8.2%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       34.2%       28.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       23.7%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h        6.8%       23.7%       15.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       23.7%       15.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       20.2%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        7.8%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%        5.7%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        3.7%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP112026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  17.1  21.8  22.4  19.9  17.1  16.7  19.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%