Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.8  19.7  17.3  20.4  21.0  18.3  15.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  16.0  24.0  22.0  13.0   7.0   6.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1  97.9  87.4  85.5  76.2  72.7  69.3  57.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  97.0 119.0  96.0  38.0  36.0  45.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        3.9%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       19.2%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       10.8%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       10.6%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       10.4%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       10.5%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        3.4%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        2.8%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        1.6%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 EP112026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.8  19.7  17.3  20.4  21.0  18.3  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%