Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  23.4  19.6  19.7  20.9  17.4  18.4  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  29.0  25.0  17.0   8.0   2.0  11.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9  87.4  85.5  78.0  74.4  61.5  60.0  47.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0 124.0  88.0  50.0  27.0   7.0  31.0   8.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.3%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       14.9%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        8.5%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        8.1%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        6.7%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        9.1%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        3.0%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        1.8%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP112026 260829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  23.4  19.6  19.7  20.9  17.4  18.4  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%